Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Friend Co.,Ltd. (605050.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.88 - $52.82$28.23
Multi-Stage$19.66 - $21.57$20.60
Blended Fair Value$24.41
Current Price$17.00
Upside43.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS92.25%0.00%0.440.300.320.190.030.020.020.000.160.00
YoY Growth--47.52%-5.59%63.64%603.26%63.88%-30.67%401.40%-97.03%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.26%2.50%2.44%1.60%0.23%0.11%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)357.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)250.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.5844.7426.84
Cash Retained (M)250.49250.49250.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.58-44.74-26.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.90205.75223.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)495.83495.83495.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$17.88$28.23$52.82
Upside / Downside5.16%66.03%210.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)357.91372.30387.27402.84419.03435.88448.96
Payout Ratio30.01%42.01%54.01%66.01%78.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.42156.41209.16265.90326.86392.29415.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)145.66147.07148.49
Year 2 PV (M)181.39184.93188.51
Year 3 PV (M)214.75221.07227.50
Year 4 PV (M)245.84255.53265.50
Year 5 PV (M)274.78288.38302.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,688.039,117.969,564.75
Equity Value (M)9,750.4510,214.9410,697.24
Shares Outstanding (M)495.83495.83495.83
Fair Value$19.66$20.60$21.57
Upside / Downside15.68%21.19%26.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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