Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Cogeneration Group Co., Ltd. (605011.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.90 - $5.86$4.83
Multi-Stage$7.70 - $8.47$8.08
Blended Fair Value$6.45
Current Price$21.56
Upside-70.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.44%0.00%0.200.230.300.310.310.300.300.300.220.00
YoY Growth---10.45%-24.11%-5.52%0.00%5.78%-0.89%1.49%33.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.97%1.97%1.64%3.54%3.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)188.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.6123.5114.10
Cash Retained (M)109.18109.18109.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.61-23.51-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.5685.6795.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.76404.76404.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.90$4.83$5.86
Upside / Downside-81.91%-77.61%-72.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)188.06186.18184.32182.48180.65178.85184.21
Payout Ratio41.95%51.56%61.17%70.78%80.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.8995.99112.75129.15145.23160.96170.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.5289.4390.33
Year 2 PV (M)95.8997.8599.84
Year 3 PV (M)101.30104.43107.63
Year 4 PV (M)105.04109.40113.89
Year 5 PV (M)107.37112.96118.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,619.412,755.802,897.83
Equity Value (M)3,117.533,269.883,428.30
Shares Outstanding (M)404.76404.76404.76
Fair Value$7.70$8.08$8.47
Upside / Downside-64.28%-62.53%-60.71%

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