Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. (603986.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.10 - $93.01$59.68
Multi-Stage$29.28 - $31.99$30.61
Blended Fair Value$45.15
Current Price$213.30
Upside-78.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.02%4.31%0.020.631.070.400.190.140.140.080.000.02
YoY Growth---96.39%-41.07%166.27%111.48%39.95%-0.62%72.17%0.00%-100.00%45.32%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.87%0.88%0.29%0.16%0.11%0.26%0.11%0.00%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,353.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,129.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.73169.21101.52
Cash Retained (M)1,129.701,129.701,129.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.73-169.21-101.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)858.96960.491,028.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.10$59.68$93.01
Upside / Downside-80.73%-72.02%-56.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,353.661,441.651,535.351,635.151,741.441,854.631,910.27
Payout Ratio16.54%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.96450.31705.14991.201,311.461,669.171,767.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)406.74410.60414.46
Year 2 PV (M)575.30586.25597.32
Year 3 PV (M)730.44751.40772.77
Year 4 PV (M)872.94906.51941.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,003.551,052.021,102.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,923.1716,692.2617,490.79
Equity Value (M)19,512.1420,399.0621,318.72
Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
Fair Value$29.28$30.61$31.99
Upside / Downside-86.27%-85.65%-85.00%

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