Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (603916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.43 - $3.72$3.03
Multi-Stage$5.90 - $6.49$6.19
Blended Fair Value$4.61
Current Price$10.42
Upside-55.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.40%-2.70%0.270.390.480.410.310.280.220.110.250.22
YoY Growth---30.63%-17.75%16.13%32.32%11.82%25.84%102.90%-57.24%15.89%-38.71%
Dividend Yield--3.58%4.54%2.92%1.92%1.36%1.68%1.79%0.84%2.34%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2813.928.35
Cash Retained (M)41.8241.8241.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.28-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5427.9033.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Fair Value$2.43$3.03$3.72
Upside / Downside-76.71%-70.93%-64.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.39109.84108.31106.79105.30103.83106.95
Payout Ratio62.46%67.96%73.47%78.98%84.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5774.6579.5884.3588.9793.4598.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)69.5070.2270.93
Year 2 PV (M)68.9870.4071.84
Year 3 PV (M)68.0870.1972.35
Year 4 PV (M)66.8669.6472.51
Year 5 PV (M)65.3868.8072.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,087.042,196.172,309.81
Equity Value (M)2,425.842,545.412,669.79
Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
Fair Value$5.90$6.19$6.49
Upside / Downside-43.41%-40.62%-37.72%

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