Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.,Ltd (603867.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.40 - $226.31$212.09
Multi-Stage$34.90 - $38.20$36.52
Blended Fair Value$124.30
Current Price$33.20
Upside274.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.63%12.01%0.580.530.420.340.210.220.180.160.120.14
YoY Growth--9.38%26.72%22.66%64.15%-4.63%20.62%11.58%37.85%-18.33%-22.89%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.91%1.17%1.43%1.17%0.88%1.00%0.90%0.65%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)231.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.3428.9617.38
Cash Retained (M)141.70141.70141.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.34-28.96-17.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.36112.74124.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.61203.61203.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.40$212.09$226.31
Upside / Downside238.57%538.83%581.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)231.70246.77262.81279.89298.08317.46326.98
Payout Ratio38.85%49.08%59.31%69.54%79.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.01121.10155.86194.63237.78285.71302.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.80113.87114.94
Year 2 PV (M)135.22137.79140.39
Year 3 PV (M)157.27161.79166.39
Year 4 PV (M)178.96185.84192.92
Year 5 PV (M)200.29209.96220.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,320.836,626.126,943.11
Equity Value (M)7,105.367,435.387,777.75
Shares Outstanding (M)203.61203.61203.61
Fair Value$34.90$36.52$38.20
Upside / Downside5.11%9.99%15.06%

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