Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Yongguan Adhesive Products Corp., Ltd. (603681.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.02 - $149.65$140.24
Multi-Stage$151.69 - $166.51$158.96
Blended Fair Value$149.60
Current Price$16.66
Upside797.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.29%34.03%0.390.190.190.350.220.230.030.030.030.02
YoY Growth--102.81%0.00%-43.75%59.61%-6.24%599.88%27.37%1.91%35.37%-10.87%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.51%0.90%1.34%0.98%1.29%0.16%0.18%0.18%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.5718.4811.09
Cash Retained (M)112.64112.64112.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.57-18.48-11.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.0694.15101.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.51196.51196.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate-8.70%-8.70%-8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.02$140.24$149.65
Upside / Downside662.42%741.81%798.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.87157.48167.72178.62190.23202.60208.67
Payout Ratio23.83%37.06%50.30%63.53%76.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.2358.3784.36113.48146.03182.34193.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-8.70%-8.70%-8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.3363.9364.53
Year 2 PV (M)99.31101.20103.11
Year 3 PV (M)144.95149.11153.35
Year 4 PV (M)202.38210.16218.17
Year 5 PV (M)274.17287.41301.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,023.6030,425.4531,880.96
Equity Value (M)29,807.7331,237.2532,721.26
Shares Outstanding (M)196.51196.51196.51
Fair Value$151.69$158.96$166.51
Upside / Downside810.48%854.14%899.47%

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