Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co. Ltd. (603637.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.58 - $5.71$4.55
Multi-Stage$7.68 - $8.44$8.05
Blended Fair Value$6.30
Current Price$12.42
Upside-49.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.55%0.76%0.120.120.110.130.130.160.070.080.050.11
YoY Growth--0.00%8.33%-19.98%2.86%-20.06%118.21%-2.50%42.22%-50.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.56%1.25%1.42%1.75%1.64%0.60%0.68%0.29%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5511.596.96
Cash Retained (M)45.0045.0045.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.55-11.59-6.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.4633.4138.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.32267.32267.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.24%-0.24%0.76%
Fair Value$3.58$4.55$5.71
Upside / Downside-71.20%-63.40%-54.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.7492.5292.2992.0791.8591.6294.37
Payout Ratio51.47%59.18%66.88%74.59%82.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.7454.7561.7368.6775.5882.4687.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.24%-0.24%0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)50.9351.4551.96
Year 2 PV (M)53.4254.5155.60
Year 3 PV (M)55.2856.9858.71
Year 4 PV (M)56.6058.9361.33
Year 5 PV (M)57.4460.4163.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,778.021,869.881,965.50
Equity Value (M)2,051.702,152.152,256.60
Shares Outstanding (M)267.32267.32267.32
Fair Value$7.68$8.05$8.44
Upside / Downside-38.20%-35.18%-32.03%

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