Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Junhe Pumps Holding Co., Ltd (603617.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.00 - $24.20$22.68
Multi-Stage$3.83 - $4.18$4.00
Blended Fair Value$13.34
Current Price$7.89
Upside69.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.32%26.31%0.060.070.140.170.070.070.060.040.010.12
YoY Growth---3.82%-51.29%-20.05%141.91%3.29%13.51%43.17%408.02%-92.71%1,735.58%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.00%1.62%1.67%0.95%0.92%0.84%0.53%0.18%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.686.053.63
Cash Retained (M)10.0410.0410.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.68-6.05-3.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.363.996.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.78397.78397.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.00$22.68$24.20
Upside / Downside52.08%187.40%206.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48.4051.5454.8958.4662.2666.3168.30
Payout Ratio79.26%81.41%83.55%85.70%87.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.3641.9645.8750.1054.7059.6863.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.0839.4539.82
Year 2 PV (M)39.7940.5541.31
Year 3 PV (M)40.4841.6542.83
Year 4 PV (M)41.1742.7544.38
Year 5 PV (M)41.8343.8545.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,319.641,383.381,449.56
Equity Value (M)1,522.001,591.631,663.86
Shares Outstanding (M)397.78397.78397.78
Fair Value$3.83$4.00$4.18
Upside / Downside-51.51%-49.29%-46.99%

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