Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. (603612.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.65 - $279.16$261.61
Multi-Stage$42.74 - $46.80$44.73
Blended Fair Value$153.17
Current Price$26.60
Upside475.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.58%12.08%0.501.040.430.170.040.060.330.070.190.22
YoY Growth---52.20%142.69%148.66%309.47%-30.00%-81.57%362.23%-62.33%-14.97%38.59%
Dividend Yield--2.93%8.42%1.85%0.90%0.26%0.57%2.09%0.23%2.31%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)709.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)512.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.9188.7053.22
Cash Retained (M)512.17512.17512.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.91-88.70-53.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.25423.47458.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)505.50505.50505.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.840.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.840.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$138.65$261.61$279.16
Upside / Downside421.24%883.50%949.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)709.57755.69804.81857.12912.83972.171,001.33
Payout Ratio27.82%40.26%52.69%65.13%77.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.40304.21424.07558.22708.03874.95926.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)283.35286.03288.72
Year 2 PV (M)367.90374.91381.98
Year 3 PV (M)451.08464.03477.22
Year 4 PV (M)532.89553.39574.46
Year 5 PV (M)613.36642.99673.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,356.7320,291.6621,262.38
Equity Value (M)21,605.3122,613.0123,658.52
Shares Outstanding (M)505.50505.50505.50
Fair Value$42.74$44.73$46.80
Upside / Downside60.68%68.17%75.95%

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