Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nacity Property Service Group Co., Ltd. (603506.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.98 - $25.86$17.11
Multi-Stage$8.52 - $9.31$8.91
Blended Fair Value$13.01
Current Price$13.81
Upside-5.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.80%0.00%0.360.320.350.220.190.170.170.180.030.59
YoY Growth--11.62%-7.42%57.35%18.61%12.71%-2.75%-2.46%467.49%-94.74%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.61%2.86%1.36%1.27%1.28%1.22%1.07%0.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.2114.518.70
Cash Retained (M)112.77112.77112.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.21-14.51-8.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.5698.26104.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)185.70185.70185.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.530.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.98$17.11$25.86
Upside / Downside-13.26%23.91%87.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.05123.59131.63140.18149.29159.00163.77
Payout Ratio2.83%20.26%37.70%55.13%72.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.2825.0449.6277.28108.34143.10151.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.5722.7923.00
Year 2 PV (M)40.3141.0841.85
Year 3 PV (M)56.5958.2259.87
Year 4 PV (M)71.5174.2677.08
Year 5 PV (M)85.1389.2493.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,305.521,368.581,434.05
Equity Value (M)1,581.641,654.171,729.38
Shares Outstanding (M)185.70185.70185.70
Fair Value$8.52$8.91$9.31
Upside / Downside-38.33%-35.50%-32.57%

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