Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cisen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603367.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.48 - $82.63$43.60
Multi-Stage$28.71 - $31.47$30.07
Blended Fair Value$36.83
Current Price$20.56
Upside79.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.72%19.04%0.680.350.310.270.620.260.160.120.120.12
YoY Growth--95.07%11.89%15.58%-56.88%135.72%65.41%34.61%-4.52%1.30%3.49%
Dividend Yield--4.94%2.35%2.17%2.04%4.75%1.57%0.87%0.44%0.74%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)492.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)289.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.5661.6036.96
Cash Retained (M)289.52289.52289.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.56-61.60-36.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.96227.92252.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)450.35450.35450.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Fair Value$27.48$43.60$82.63
Upside / Downside33.65%112.06%301.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)492.80513.71535.51558.24581.93606.62624.82
Payout Ratio41.25%51.00%60.75%70.50%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.28261.99325.32393.56466.99545.96577.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Year 1 PV (M)243.57245.93248.29
Year 2 PV (M)281.17286.65292.17
Year 3 PV (M)316.23325.50334.96
Year 4 PV (M)348.85362.56376.67
Year 5 PV (M)379.15397.87417.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,361.2911,922.2712,505.19
Equity Value (M)12,930.2513,540.7714,174.61
Shares Outstanding (M)450.35450.35450.35
Fair Value$28.71$30.07$31.47
Upside / Downside39.65%46.24%53.09%

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