Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited (603363.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.93 - $272.86$111.43
Multi-Stage$28.94 - $31.69$30.29
Blended Fair Value$70.86
Current Price$4.80
Upside1,376.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.91%20.48%0.060.250.280.260.140.060.060.020.010.03
YoY Growth---76.94%-11.35%8.07%85.81%121.21%14.18%182.08%46.91%-58.45%260.80%
Dividend Yield--1.67%4.58%2.25%1.10%1.02%0.38%0.47%0.14%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,812.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,768.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)362.45226.53135.92
Cash Retained (M)1,768.141,768.141,768.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-362.45-226.53-135.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,405.691,541.611,632.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,320.901,320.901,320.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.171.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.93$111.43$272.86
Upside / Downside1,023.45%2,221.54%5,584.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,812.271,930.062,055.522,189.132,331.422,482.962,557.45
Payout Ratio2.43%19.95%37.46%54.97%72.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.12385.01770.011,203.451,689.982,234.672,365.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)354.30357.65361.01
Year 2 PV (M)652.08664.50677.03
Year 3 PV (M)937.83964.76992.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,211.931,258.541,306.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,474.721,545.951,619.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,592.4835,215.0136,899.64
Equity Value (M)38,223.3440,006.4141,856.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,320.901,320.901,320.90
Fair Value$28.94$30.29$31.69
Upside / Downside502.86%530.99%560.16%

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