Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Baida Precision Manufacturing Corp. (603331.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.69 - $71.50$67.01
Multi-Stage$46.28 - $50.79$48.49
Blended Fair Value$57.75
Current Price$11.06
Upside422.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.63%2.21%0.320.110.330.270.240.220.190.060.070.09
YoY Growth--183.93%-65.65%18.84%13.01%10.27%17.31%195.79%-4.16%-27.09%-64.47%
Dividend Yield--3.26%0.95%2.28%2.04%2.57%1.69%1.49%0.48%0.67%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.278.925.35
Cash Retained (M)52.2352.2352.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.27-8.92-5.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9743.3246.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.42198.42198.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.69$67.01$71.50
Upside / Downside448.72%505.85%546.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.3475.9780.9186.1791.7797.74100.67
Payout Ratio26.78%39.42%52.07%64.71%77.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.1029.9542.1355.7670.9987.9693.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6829.9730.25
Year 2 PV (M)41.3842.1742.96
Year 3 PV (M)54.2855.8457.43
Year 4 PV (M)68.4971.1373.84
Year 5 PV (M)84.1188.1892.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,904.309,334.399,780.93
Equity Value (M)9,182.269,621.6710,077.80
Shares Outstanding (M)198.42198.42198.42
Fair Value$46.28$48.49$50.79
Upside / Downside318.43%338.45%359.23%

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