Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company Ltd. (603288.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.03 - $240.40$225.27
Multi-Stage$37.47 - $41.00$39.21
Blended Fair Value$132.24
Current Price$38.96
Upside239.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.87%25.71%0.650.580.570.590.520.470.410.330.290.23
YoY Growth--13.41%1.22%-3.83%14.41%10.38%15.23%24.86%13.28%27.05%241.49%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.45%0.89%0.90%0.56%0.77%0.97%1.18%1.70%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,851.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,785.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,066.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,370.29856.43513.86
Cash Retained (M)2,066.212,066.212,066.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,370.29-856.43-513.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)695.931,209.781,552.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.035,635.035,635.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.210.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$71.03$225.27$240.40
Upside / Downside82.31%478.22%517.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,851.437,253.867,679.928,131.018,608.609,114.249,387.67
Payout Ratio69.84%73.87%77.91%81.94%85.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,785.225,358.725,983.096,662.317,400.698,202.828,683.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)4,993.055,040.665,088.27
Year 2 PV (M)5,194.405,293.935,394.41
Year 3 PV (M)5,389.405,545.045,703.65
Year 4 PV (M)5,578.175,794.006,016.02
Year 5 PV (M)5,760.876,040.826,331.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)184,253.96193,207.67202,506.11
Equity Value (M)211,169.86220,922.11231,040.01
Shares Outstanding (M)5,635.035,635.035,635.03
Fair Value$37.47$39.21$41.00
Upside / Downside-3.81%0.63%5.24%

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