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Definitive Analysis

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Yong Jie New Material Co Ltd (603271.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.89 - $56.33$42.25
Multi-Stage$175.35 - $193.77$184.37
Blended Fair Value$113.31
Current Price$40.30
Upside181.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)392.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)322.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.4949.0629.43
Cash Retained (M)322.00322.00322.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.49-49.06-29.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)243.51272.94292.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.17160.17160.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.701.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.701.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.142.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.02%4.02%4.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$31.89$42.25$56.33
Upside / Downside-20.87%4.84%39.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)392.45388.53384.64380.80376.99373.22384.42
Payout Ratio17.95%32.36%46.77%61.18%75.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.46125.74179.90232.98284.97335.90355.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.02%4.02%4.02%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)119.65120.87122.09
Year 2 PV (M)162.91166.26169.63
Year 3 PV (M)200.76206.97213.31
Year 4 PV (M)233.69243.37253.35
Year 5 PV (M)262.12275.77289.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,106.3828,517.8729,987.56
Equity Value (M)28,085.5229,531.1131,035.93
Shares Outstanding (M)160.17160.17160.17
Fair Value$175.35$184.37$193.77
Upside / Downside335.10%357.49%380.81%

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