Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Solbar Ningbo Protein Technology Co., Ltd. (603231.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.26 - $181.77$170.35
Multi-Stage$28.32 - $31.00$29.63
Blended Fair Value$99.99
Current Price$18.76
Upside433.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS21.15%0.00%0.500.220.330.380.150.190.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--122.63%-31.72%-14.85%148.78%-18.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.25%1.15%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.2422.0213.21
Cash Retained (M)118.12118.12118.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.24-22.02-13.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.8996.10104.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.77192.77192.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.26$170.35$181.77
Upside / Downside407.79%808.02%868.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.19187.64199.84212.83226.66241.39248.63
Payout Ratio32.96%44.36%55.77%67.18%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0683.25111.46142.98178.13217.25229.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.5778.3179.04
Year 2 PV (M)96.7798.62100.48
Year 3 PV (M)115.68119.00122.39
Year 4 PV (M)134.30139.46144.77
Year 5 PV (M)152.62159.99167.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,881.485,117.255,362.05
Equity Value (M)5,458.425,712.645,976.38
Shares Outstanding (M)192.77192.77192.77
Fair Value$28.32$29.63$31.00
Upside / Downside50.94%57.97%65.26%

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