Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. (603187.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.41 - $197.93$185.49
Multi-Stage$31.29 - $34.24$32.74
Blended Fair Value$109.11
Current Price$15.06
Upside624.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.41%24.82%0.550.250.190.270.180.120.000.080.090.09
YoY Growth--118.02%31.69%-30.10%54.50%41.50%5,586.28%-97.38%-6.30%-4.34%56.67%
Dividend Yield--4.88%1.60%1.00%1.26%0.66%1.09%0.02%0.69%0.74%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)191.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4647.7928.67
Cash Retained (M)191.15191.15191.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.46-47.79-28.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.69143.36162.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.12384.12384.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$105.41$185.49$197.93
Upside / Downside599.94%1,131.65%1,214.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.29407.14433.60461.78491.80523.77539.48
Payout Ratio50.00%58.00%66.00%74.00%82.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.14236.14286.17341.72403.28471.39499.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.06222.15224.23
Year 2 PV (M)248.54253.27258.05
Year 3 PV (M)276.58284.52292.61
Year 4 PV (M)304.18315.88327.91
Year 5 PV (M)331.35347.36363.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,639.6911,153.5911,687.16
Equity Value (M)12,020.4012,576.7613,153.93
Shares Outstanding (M)384.12384.12384.12
Fair Value$31.29$32.74$34.24
Upside / Downside107.79%117.41%127.39%

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