Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.,Ltd. (603179.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.99 - $225.42$95.65
Multi-Stage$34.68 - $37.93$36.27
Blended Fair Value$65.96
Current Price$83.04
Upside-20.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.48%0.00%0.300.300.230.230.190.280.170.020.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%30.00%1.45%22.50%-33.39%67.41%578.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.68%0.53%0.85%0.79%2.38%1.52%0.15%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)913.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)736.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.73114.2168.52
Cash Retained (M)736.70736.70736.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.73-114.21-68.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)553.97622.49668.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)487.06487.06487.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.281.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.281.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.99$95.65$225.42
Upside / Downside-32.57%15.19%171.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)913.65973.041,036.291,103.651,175.391,251.791,289.34
Payout Ratio19.37%33.49%47.62%61.75%75.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.96325.91493.49681.47891.811,126.611,192.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)298.04300.86303.69
Year 2 PV (M)412.67420.53428.47
Year 3 PV (M)521.12536.08551.33
Year 4 PV (M)623.63647.61672.28
Year 5 PV (M)720.43755.23791.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,315.6115,007.0615,724.98
Equity Value (M)16,891.5117,667.3918,472.10
Shares Outstanding (M)487.06487.06487.06
Fair Value$34.68$36.27$37.93
Upside / Downside-58.24%-56.32%-54.33%

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