Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited (603128.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.45 - $3.63$3.01
Multi-Stage$2.12 - $2.31$2.21
Blended Fair Value$2.61
Current Price$5.97
Upside-56.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.50%25.91%0.260.210.230.240.040.070.070.040.040.04
YoY Growth--25.12%-8.18%-6.93%542.20%-48.98%13.69%50.34%-1.52%24.40%36.47%
Dividend Yield--4.57%3.00%2.38%2.08%0.29%1.74%1.01%0.76%0.62%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)373.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.6346.6427.99
Cash Retained (M)255.66255.66255.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.63-46.64-27.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)181.03209.01227.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.841,308.841,308.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.45$3.01$3.63
Upside / Downside-58.93%-49.51%-39.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)373.16397.41423.25450.76480.06511.26526.60
Payout Ratio31.49%43.19%54.89%66.60%78.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.50171.65232.33300.18375.87460.13487.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)147.45148.85150.25
Year 2 PV (M)171.46174.72178.02
Year 3 PV (M)190.30195.77201.33
Year 4 PV (M)204.70212.57220.67
Year 5 PV (M)215.27225.67236.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,850.621,940.002,032.81
Equity Value (M)2,779.802,897.583,019.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.841,308.841,308.84
Fair Value$2.12$2.21$2.31
Upside / Downside-64.42%-62.92%-61.36%

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