Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Jiangnan New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (603124.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.47 - $19.83$16.52
Multi-Stage$24.24 - $26.64$25.42
Blended Fair Value$20.97
Current Price$87.15
Upside-75.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)206.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.2125.7615.45
Cash Retained (M)132.56132.56132.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.21-25.76-15.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.35106.80117.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.47$16.52$19.83
Upside / Downside-84.55%-81.04%-77.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)206.06203.99201.95199.94197.94195.96201.84
Payout Ratio35.67%46.53%57.40%68.27%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.4994.93115.92136.49156.63176.36186.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.9587.8488.73
Year 2 PV (M)97.2699.26101.27
Year 3 PV (M)104.90108.14111.45
Year 4 PV (M)110.27114.84119.55
Year 5 PV (M)113.72119.64125.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,374.852,498.522,627.28
Equity Value (M)2,887.953,028.233,174.09
Shares Outstanding (M)119.13119.13119.13
Fair Value$24.24$25.42$26.64
Upside / Downside-72.18%-70.83%-69.43%

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