Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. (603099.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.23 - $31.82$19.61
Multi-Stage$9.24 - $10.10$9.66
Blended Fair Value$14.63
Current Price$45.66
Upside-67.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.92%9.89%0.100.020.020.020.080.050.040.090.130.10
YoY Growth--540.00%-13.96%-10.99%-72.98%44.87%18.27%-51.20%-30.43%27.78%160.87%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.07%0.18%0.22%0.88%0.65%0.35%0.75%0.72%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1618.2310.94
Cash Retained (M)121.44121.44121.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.16-18.23-10.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.28103.21110.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.39237.39237.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.23$19.61$31.82
Upside / Downside-71.03%-57.06%-30.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.80155.28165.37176.12187.57199.76205.75
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.68%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.3648.7176.11106.88141.32179.78190.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.1044.5144.93
Year 2 PV (M)62.3863.5764.77
Year 3 PV (M)79.3181.5883.90
Year 4 PV (M)94.9498.59102.34
Year 5 PV (M)109.34114.63120.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,803.261,890.361,980.79
Equity Value (M)2,193.332,293.252,396.85
Shares Outstanding (M)237.39237.39237.39
Fair Value$9.24$9.66$10.10
Upside / Downside-79.77%-78.84%-77.89%

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