Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (603090.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.24 - $129.88$121.71
Multi-Stage$76.52 - $83.97$80.17
Blended Fair Value$100.94
Current Price$53.03
Upside90.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.77%16.00%0.330.330.330.020.130.120.100.200.070.30
YoY Growth---1.10%0.84%1,537.57%-84.00%2.44%23.60%-50.00%166.67%-75.00%300.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.44%1.37%0.08%1.01%0.71%0.55%1.08%0.19%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.198.254.95
Cash Retained (M)34.5234.5234.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.19-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.3226.2729.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)101.02101.02101.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.24$121.71$129.88
Upside / Downside107.88%129.52%144.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.9770.2674.8379.6984.8790.3893.10
Payout Ratio47.68%56.14%64.61%73.07%81.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4539.4448.3458.2369.2081.3586.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.3338.6939.05
Year 2 PV (M)45.6546.5147.39
Year 3 PV (M)53.4354.9656.52
Year 4 PV (M)61.6964.0766.51
Year 5 PV (M)70.4873.8877.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,460.597,820.948,195.08
Equity Value (M)7,730.168,099.058,481.97
Shares Outstanding (M)101.02101.02101.02
Fair Value$76.52$80.17$83.97
Upside / Downside44.30%51.19%58.34%

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