Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fuda Alloy Materials Co.,Ltd (603045.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.08 - $87.45$81.95
Multi-Stage$12.66 - $13.83$13.24
Blended Fair Value$47.59
Current Price$20.29
Upside134.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.72%13.36%0.410.370.340.380.340.250.160.210.210.22
YoY Growth--10.37%10.65%-12.62%12.17%39.02%58.92%-25.20%-2.54%-5.23%91.77%
Dividend Yield--2.60%2.92%2.36%2.10%3.14%1.96%0.71%2.09%2.14%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.917.454.47
Cash Retained (M)13.0913.0913.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.91-7.45-4.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.185.658.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.47135.47135.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.08$81.95$87.45
Upside / Downside58.09%303.89%330.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.5763.4467.5671.9676.6381.6184.06
Payout Ratio78.02%80.41%82.81%85.21%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.4751.0155.9561.3167.1373.4577.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.3847.8348.28
Year 2 PV (M)48.2649.1850.11
Year 3 PV (M)49.1250.5351.97
Year 4 PV (M)49.9651.8853.85
Year 5 PV (M)50.7753.2255.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,469.581,540.561,614.26
Equity Value (M)1,715.071,793.201,874.24
Shares Outstanding (M)135.47135.47135.47
Fair Value$12.66$13.24$13.83
Upside / Downside-37.61%-34.76%-31.81%

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