Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Anfu Battery Technology Co., Ltd. (603031.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$151.95 - $179.03$167.78
Multi-Stage$100.34 - $110.10$105.13
Blended Fair Value$136.45
Current Price$42.78
Upside218.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.55%16.12%0.650.440.360.110.080.110.060.130.110.15
YoY Growth--48.80%21.80%241.66%31.66%-27.80%97.34%-58.16%27.41%-28.22%0.34%
Dividend Yield--2.26%1.31%1.11%0.36%0.42%0.50%0.58%1.17%0.44%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)192.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.5324.0814.45
Cash Retained (M)96.0796.0796.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.53-24.08-14.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.5471.9981.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)214.02214.02214.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate2.99%2.99%2.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$151.95$167.78$179.03
Upside / Downside255.20%292.18%318.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)192.66205.18218.52232.72247.85263.96271.88
Payout Ratio50.13%58.11%66.08%74.05%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.59119.22144.40172.34203.30237.56251.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.99%2.99%2.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)114.68115.76116.85
Year 2 PV (M)133.59136.13138.70
Year 3 PV (M)153.36157.76162.25
Year 4 PV (M)174.01180.70187.58
Year 5 PV (M)195.58205.02214.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,703.9521,703.9622,742.24
Equity Value (M)21,475.1622,499.3423,562.45
Shares Outstanding (M)214.02214.02214.02
Fair Value$100.34$105.13$110.10
Upside / Downside134.56%145.74%157.36%

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