Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd. (603020.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.24 - $6.39$5.26
Multi-Stage$5.23 - $5.74$5.48
Blended Fair Value$5.37
Current Price$9.91
Upside-45.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.77%-0.40%0.110.060.150.140.130.090.130.170.340.13
YoY Growth--79.01%-60.79%12.16%6.67%36.50%-26.67%-25.00%-50.00%166.67%14.28%
Dividend Yield--1.24%0.74%1.59%1.22%1.41%1.01%1.37%1.54%1.83%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)182.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)182.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.4522.7813.67
Cash Retained (M)182.10182.10182.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.45-22.78-13.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)145.65159.32168.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.64375.64375.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$4.24$5.26$6.39
Upside / Downside-57.20%-46.97%-35.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)182.26185.48188.76192.09195.49198.94204.91
Payout Ratio0.09%18.07%36.05%54.04%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1633.5268.05103.80140.79179.05189.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1830.4730.77
Year 2 PV (M)55.1656.2657.37
Year 3 PV (M)75.7378.0180.33
Year 4 PV (M)92.4896.20100.04
Year 5 PV (M)105.88111.24116.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,603.981,685.161,769.60
Equity Value (M)1,963.402,057.342,154.92
Shares Outstanding (M)375.64375.64375.64
Fair Value$5.23$5.48$5.74
Upside / Downside-47.26%-44.73%-42.11%

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