Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd (601918.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.53 - $155.77$131.70
Multi-Stage$24.11 - $26.43$25.24
Blended Fair Value$78.47
Current Price$6.23
Upside1,159.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.23%0.58%0.330.290.280.300.350.350.360.380.390.34
YoY Growth--15.14%5.19%-9.43%-12.42%-2.14%-2.37%-4.30%-3.05%13.52%9.55%
Dividend Yield--4.87%3.38%6.67%5.20%10.81%13.04%10.26%11.86%7.80%5.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,045.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,661.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)409.04255.65153.39
Cash Retained (M)1,661.311,661.311,661.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-409.04-255.65-153.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,252.271,405.661,507.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,590.542,590.542,590.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$42.53$131.70$155.77
Upside / Downside582.64%2,013.94%2,400.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,045.202,160.782,282.892,411.912,548.212,692.222,772.99
Payout Ratio18.77%33.02%47.26%61.51%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.88713.401,078.941,483.521,930.372,423.002,565.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)665.36671.72678.08
Year 2 PV (M)938.52956.54974.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,203.541,238.371,273.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,460.601,517.231,575.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,709.881,793.151,879.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,467.4959,217.4362,073.48
Equity Value (M)62,445.3965,394.4468,455.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,590.542,590.542,590.54
Fair Value$24.11$25.24$26.43
Upside / Downside286.92%305.19%324.16%

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