Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.88 - $82.66$51.44
Multi-Stage$25.86 - $28.18$27.00
Blended Fair Value$39.22
Current Price$71.57
Upside-45.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.64%24.51%1.690.801.420.940.680.520.490.470.240.22
YoY Growth--111.32%-43.49%50.00%38.89%30.91%5.77%4.00%100.00%8.69%15.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%0.91%0.77%0.57%0.22%0.77%0.70%0.89%0.83%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,399.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,107.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,292.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)679.96424.97254.98
Cash Retained (M)1,292.381,292.381,292.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-679.96-424.97-254.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)612.42867.401,037.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,068.862,068.862,068.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.420.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.88$51.44$82.66
Upside / Downside-51.27%-28.12%15.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,399.783,620.763,856.114,106.764,373.704,657.994,797.73
Payout Ratio61.99%67.59%73.19%78.79%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,107.402,447.242,822.363,235.903,691.284,192.194,437.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,214.412,235.402,256.39
Year 2 PV (M)2,310.862,354.872,399.30
Year 3 PV (M)2,397.382,466.202,536.33
Year 4 PV (M)2,474.572,569.732,667.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,542.982,665.812,793.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,563.8643,571.4145,655.80
Equity Value (M)53,504.0655,863.4358,308.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2,068.862,068.862,068.86
Fair Value$25.86$27.00$28.18
Upside / Downside-63.87%-62.27%-60.62%

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