Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.,Ltd. (601799.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$448.61 - $1,097.08$1,028.13
Multi-Stage$158.77 - $173.83$166.16
Blended Fair Value$597.14
Current Price$134.88
Upside342.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.59%8.44%1.391.101.101.260.991.010.990.700.620.67
YoY Growth--27.15%-0.58%-12.47%27.89%-2.79%2.57%41.60%13.26%-7.62%7.59%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.77%0.92%0.97%0.52%1.21%1.60%1.27%1.63%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,572.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)426.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,145.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)314.42196.51117.91
Cash Retained (M)1,145.751,145.751,145.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-314.42-196.51-117.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)831.33949.241,027.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)284.99284.99284.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.923.333.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.923.333.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.414.835.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$448.61$1,028.13$1,097.08
Upside / Downside232.60%662.25%713.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,572.111,674.301,783.121,899.032,022.462,153.932,218.54
Payout Ratio27.12%39.70%52.27%64.85%77.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)426.35664.63932.071,231.481,565.871,938.532,052.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)617.98623.84629.70
Year 2 PV (M)805.84821.19836.68
Year 3 PV (M)989.981,018.391,047.35
Year 4 PV (M)1,170.451,215.461,261.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,347.311,412.391,479.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,315.0142,262.2444,283.99
Equity Value (M)45,246.5747,353.5149,539.44
Shares Outstanding (M)284.99284.99284.99
Fair Value$158.77$166.16$173.83
Upside / Downside17.71%23.19%28.88%

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