Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Film Co., Ltd. (601595.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.80 - $2.54$2.16
Multi-Stage$2.79 - $3.06$2.92
Blended Fair Value$2.54
Current Price$29.97
Upside-91.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.61%9.89%0.220.090.000.010.100.200.220.220.000.09
YoY Growth--152.13%8,042.81%-79.63%-94.86%-49.61%-9.91%-0.42%0.00%-100.00%11.68%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.28%0.01%0.05%0.79%2.00%1.73%1.42%0.00%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.4115.269.15
Cash Retained (M)78.5678.5678.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.41-15.26-9.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.1563.3169.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)440.30440.30440.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$1.80$2.16$2.54
Upside / Downside-94.01%-92.78%-91.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.06120.62119.20117.79116.40115.03118.48
Payout Ratio35.64%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.5056.1068.4080.4092.10103.52109.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)50.5351.0551.56
Year 2 PV (M)55.4956.6357.78
Year 3 PV (M)58.7560.5762.42
Year 4 PV (M)60.6263.1465.73
Year 5 PV (M)61.3764.5767.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)941.42990.531,041.67
Equity Value (M)1,228.171,286.481,347.08
Shares Outstanding (M)440.30440.30440.30
Fair Value$2.79$2.92$3.06
Upside / Downside-90.69%-90.25%-89.79%

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