Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Triangle Tyre Co., Ltd (601163.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.61 - $12.57$10.52
Multi-Stage$12.34 - $13.57$12.94
Blended Fair Value$11.73
Current Price$13.85
Upside-15.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.33%-5.98%0.720.330.270.440.390.250.330.460.111.29
YoY Growth--115.76%25.00%-38.88%12.08%54.46%-22.96%-29.33%313.72%-91.32%-3.25%
Dividend Yield--4.76%2.03%2.02%3.52%2.35%2.00%2.39%2.72%0.37%4.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)901.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)876.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)180.30112.6967.61
Cash Retained (M)876.87876.87876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-180.30-112.69-67.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)696.57764.18809.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Fair Value$8.61$10.52$12.57
Upside / Downside-37.84%-24.03%-9.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)901.52901.81902.10902.38902.67902.96930.05
Payout Ratio2.73%20.19%37.64%55.09%72.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.64182.05339.55497.15654.86812.66860.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate-0.97%0.03%1.03%
Year 1 PV (M)164.69166.35168.02
Year 2 PV (M)277.89283.53289.23
Year 3 PV (M)368.09379.35390.84
Year 4 PV (M)438.62456.61475.14
Year 5 PV (M)492.43517.80544.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,102.608,520.048,954.51
Equity Value (M)9,844.3210,323.6810,821.94
Shares Outstanding (M)797.65797.65797.65
Fair Value$12.34$12.94$13.57
Upside / Downside-10.89%-6.55%-2.04%

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