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Definitive Analysis

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The Pacific Securities Co., Ltd (601099.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.14 - $0.19$0.17
Multi-Stage$0.26 - $0.29$0.28
Blended Fair Value$0.22
Current Price$4.58
Upside-95.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-68.34%-25.04%0.000.000.010.020.060.090.120.130.150.04
YoY Growth---47.13%-93.43%-47.14%-74.80%-31.26%-24.74%-10.29%-10.47%304.04%620.85%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.02%0.32%0.54%1.92%2.73%2.81%4.66%3.24%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)325.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.8841.1824.71
Cash Retained (M)325.86325.86325.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.88-41.18-24.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.98284.68301.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,805.286,805.286,805.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-13.57%-12.57%-11.57%
Fair Value$0.14$0.17$0.19
Upside / Downside-96.87%-96.38%-95.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.42288.00251.79220.13192.46168.26173.31
Payout Ratio1.08%18.86%36.65%54.43%72.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.5654.3392.27119.82138.98151.43160.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-13.57%-12.57%-11.57%
Year 1 PV (M)48.9249.4950.06
Year 2 PV (M)74.8376.5778.33
Year 3 PV (M)87.5190.5893.72
Year 4 PV (M)91.4095.71100.16
Year 5 PV (M)89.6894.99100.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,401.301,484.261,571.11
Equity Value (M)1,793.651,891.611,993.94
Shares Outstanding (M)6,805.286,805.286,805.28
Fair Value$0.26$0.28$0.29
Upside / Downside-94.25%-93.93%-93.60%

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