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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping (Group) Co., Ltd. (601083.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.98 - $230.19$215.73
Multi-Stage$33.81 - $37.01$35.38
Blended Fair Value$125.55
Current Price$11.47
Upside994.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS190.11%0.00%0.400.590.620.100.160.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.92%-5.68%515.68%-35.03%7,899.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.22%5.98%5.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,486.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)957.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)297.25185.78111.47
Cash Retained (M)957.74957.74957.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-297.25-185.78-111.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)660.49771.96846.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.051,284.051,284.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$96.98$215.73$230.19
Upside / Downside745.51%1,780.79%1,906.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,486.271,582.881,685.771,795.341,912.042,036.322,097.41
Payout Ratio35.56%46.45%57.34%68.22%79.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.53735.22966.561,224.861,512.651,832.691,940.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)683.82690.30696.79
Year 2 PV (M)836.13852.06868.13
Year 3 PV (M)985.501,013.791,042.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,131.961,175.501,220.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,275.571,337.181,401.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,500.2640,359.8442,290.59
Equity Value (M)43,413.2545,428.6747,519.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.051,284.051,284.05
Fair Value$33.81$35.38$37.01
Upside / Downside194.76%208.45%222.65%

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