Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. (601021.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$346.14 - $407.81$382.18
Multi-Stage$69.82 - $76.51$73.10
Blended Fair Value$227.64
Current Price$53.48
Upside325.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.78%31.77%1.190.570.580.490.190.190.180.130.170.10
YoY Growth--110.88%-3.12%19.32%160.96%-0.02%6.95%33.86%-23.75%75.00%29.92%
Dividend Yield--2.30%0.99%0.93%1.11%0.31%0.58%0.42%0.43%0.49%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,004.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)330.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,673.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)400.84250.53150.32
Cash Retained (M)1,673.521,673.521,673.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-400.84-250.53-150.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,272.671,422.991,523.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)977.38977.38977.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.461.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.461.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.641.791.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$346.14$382.18$407.81
Upside / Downside547.23%614.62%662.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,004.222,134.492,273.232,420.992,578.362,745.952,828.33
Payout Ratio16.50%31.20%45.90%60.60%75.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)330.70665.971,043.421,467.121,941.502,471.362,616.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)622.40628.30634.19
Year 2 PV (M)911.35928.71946.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,197.601,231.981,267.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,481.141,538.101,596.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,762.011,847.121,935.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,265.8865,273.3568,395.91
Equity Value (M)68,240.3971,447.5574,775.53
Shares Outstanding (M)977.38977.38977.38
Fair Value$69.82$73.10$76.51
Upside / Downside30.55%36.69%43.05%

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