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Orient Securities Company Limited (600958.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.78 - $41.99$23.07
Multi-Stage$14.95 - $16.37$15.65
Blended Fair Value$19.36
Current Price$11.44
Upside69.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.12%17.23%0.530.460.620.560.520.500.570.510.560.29
YoY Growth--14.52%-25.35%10.66%8.35%3.14%-11.99%12.69%-9.68%94.52%166.17%
Dividend Yield--5.62%5.57%6.34%5.21%5.95%5.61%4.78%4.15%3.89%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,158.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,262.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,895.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,031.70644.81386.89
Cash Retained (M)1,895.651,895.651,895.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,031.70-644.81-386.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)863.951,250.841,508.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$14.78$23.07$41.99
Upside / Downside29.16%101.63%267.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,158.515,388.225,628.165,878.786,140.576,414.016,606.43
Payout Ratio63.25%68.60%73.95%79.30%84.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,262.863,696.404,162.094,661.925,198.015,772.616,110.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)3,425.663,458.773,491.88
Year 2 PV (M)3,574.713,644.153,714.26
Year 3 PV (M)3,710.723,819.373,930.12
Year 4 PV (M)3,834.383,984.804,139.60
Year 5 PV (M)3,946.344,140.794,342.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,936.31113,254.82118,780.95
Equity Value (M)126,428.11132,302.70138,399.65
Shares Outstanding (M)8,455.138,455.138,455.13
Fair Value$14.95$15.65$16.37
Upside / Downside30.71%36.78%43.08%

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