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Bank of Xi'an Co.,Ltd. (600928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $8.46$6.88
Multi-Stage$10.75 - $11.83$11.28
Blended Fair Value$9.08
Current Price$3.89
Upside133.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.44%0.45%0.080.200.240.660.240.180.090.080.130.10
YoY Growth---57.66%-17.09%-63.23%171.33%30.88%111.70%12.85%-39.04%31.36%19.26%
Dividend Yield--2.42%5.82%7.08%16.63%4.64%3.36%0.70%1.15%1.88%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,664.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)593.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)532.94333.09199.85
Cash Retained (M)2,071.362,071.362,071.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-532.94-333.09-199.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,538.421,738.281,871.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Fair Value$5.50$6.88$8.46
Upside / Downside41.36%76.78%117.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,664.692,650.022,635.422,620.902,606.472,592.112,669.87
Payout Ratio22.27%35.81%49.36%62.91%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)593.33949.051,300.841,648.721,992.732,332.902,469.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Year 1 PV (M)877.79886.71895.62
Year 2 PV (M)1,112.811,135.541,158.49
Year 3 PV (M)1,304.501,344.661,385.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,458.301,518.461,580.46
Year 5 PV (M)1,579.041,660.881,746.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,463.8343,612.9045,850.16
Equity Value (M)47,796.2850,159.1452,616.45
Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
Fair Value$10.75$11.28$11.83
Upside / Downside176.29%189.94%204.15%

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