Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. (600895.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.36 - $135.95$127.39
Multi-Stage$46.41 - $50.93$48.63
Blended Fair Value$88.01
Current Price$54.95
Upside60.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.31%6.96%0.780.160.530.360.360.320.280.360.290.29
YoY Growth--394.30%-70.24%49.37%-2.02%12.32%15.58%-22.91%26.75%-2.61%-26.31%
Dividend Yield--3.14%0.78%3.22%2.59%2.17%2.66%1.20%2.69%1.66%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,087.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)721.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)217.60136.0081.60
Cash Retained (M)366.06366.06366.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-217.60-136.00-81.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.47230.06284.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate4.48%4.48%4.48%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$115.36$127.39$135.95
Upside / Downside109.94%131.83%147.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,087.981,143.211,201.251,262.231,326.311,393.641,435.45
Payout Ratio66.35%71.08%75.81%80.54%85.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)721.91812.63910.691,016.621,130.961,254.281,327.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.48%4.48%4.48%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)770.36777.76785.16
Year 2 PV (M)818.42834.22850.18
Year 3 PV (M)866.09891.30916.99
Year 4 PV (M)913.38949.00985.64
Year 5 PV (M)960.291,007.321,056.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,551.2171,908.4175,395.87
Equity Value (M)72,879.7576,368.0079,990.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,570.491,570.491,570.49
Fair Value$46.41$48.63$50.93
Upside / Downside-15.55%-11.51%-7.31%

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