Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Zhongbai Co., Ltd. (600857.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.58 - $30.20$28.28
Multi-Stage$266.39 - $295.69$280.73
Blended Fair Value$154.50
Current Price$17.36
Upside790.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%3.54%0.080.040.000.000.000.000.000.060.060.06
YoY Growth--88.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.57%0.38%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.594.752.85
Cash Retained (M)18.9018.9018.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.59-4.75-2.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3114.1516.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)224.43224.43224.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate-45.87%-45.87%-45.87%
Growth Rate-5.49%-4.49%-3.49%
Fair Value$25.58$28.28$30.20
Upside / Downside47.36%62.88%73.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.9736.2634.6333.0831.5930.1731.08
Payout Ratio50.22%58.18%66.13%74.09%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.0721.1022.9024.5125.9227.1628.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-45.87%-45.87%-45.87%
Growth Rate-5.49%-4.49%-3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)38.5638.9739.38
Year 2 PV (M)76.5378.1679.81
Year 3 PV (M)149.69154.50159.40
Year 4 PV (M)289.41301.86314.70
Year 5 PV (M)554.28584.23615.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,676.8161,847.4965,153.79
Equity Value (M)59,785.2963,005.2166,362.54
Shares Outstanding (M)224.43224.43224.43
Fair Value$266.39$280.73$295.69
Upside / Downside1,434.49%1,517.13%1,603.30%

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