Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CMST Development Co.,Ltd. (600787.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.87 - $2.77$2.30
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.72$1.65
Blended Fair Value$1.97
Current Price$5.92
Upside-66.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.73%7.60%0.160.150.220.140.100.170.160.120.130.10
YoY Growth--5.96%-30.37%61.23%39.80%-42.04%3.81%34.75%-10.58%31.77%30.88%
Dividend Yield--2.81%3.11%4.13%2.53%1.89%3.68%2.28%1.32%1.53%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)462.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.5457.8434.70
Cash Retained (M)362.81362.81362.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.54-57.84-34.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.27304.97328.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate15.19%15.19%15.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.87$2.30$2.77
Upside / Downside-68.46%-61.18%-53.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)462.70492.77524.80558.92595.25633.94652.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.27%48.95%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.89173.81256.91350.08454.28570.54603.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.19%15.19%15.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)149.47150.89152.30
Year 2 PV (M)190.00193.62197.27
Year 3 PV (M)222.65229.04235.55
Year 4 PV (M)248.46258.02267.85
Year 5 PV (M)268.36281.32294.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,330.342,442.892,559.76
Equity Value (M)3,409.283,555.783,707.51
Shares Outstanding (M)2,158.562,158.562,158.56
Fair Value$1.58$1.65$1.72
Upside / Downside-73.32%-72.17%-70.99%

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