Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luxin Venture Capital Group Co., Ltd. (600783.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.91 - $8.18$5.52
Multi-Stage$18.01 - $19.89$18.93
Blended Fair Value$12.23
Current Price$13.52
Upside-9.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.89%6.94%0.290.390.390.270.240.210.170.280.200.25
YoY Growth---26.19%0.28%45.36%11.05%16.82%17.93%-36.60%37.64%-20.08%70.41%
Dividend Yield--2.38%3.41%2.89%1.78%1.82%1.66%0.74%2.06%0.88%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.5221.5712.94
Cash Retained (M)97.6397.6397.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.52-21.57-12.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.1176.0684.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)756.23756.23756.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.91$5.52$8.18
Upside / Downside-71.11%-59.16%-39.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.58170.86169.15167.46165.78164.13169.05
Payout Ratio43.43%52.74%62.06%71.37%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.9590.12104.97119.52133.76147.71156.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)86.9687.8588.74
Year 2 PV (M)97.7599.76101.78
Year 3 PV (M)107.40110.72114.11
Year 4 PV (M)116.00120.80125.76
Year 5 PV (M)123.61130.05136.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,085.4813,766.8714,476.36
Equity Value (M)13,617.2114,316.0615,043.50
Shares Outstanding (M)756.23756.23756.23
Fair Value$18.01$18.93$19.89
Upside / Downside33.18%40.02%47.13%

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