Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd (600782.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.46 - $1.98$1.73
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.10$3.89
Blended Fair Value$2.81
Current Price$4.18
Upside-32.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.95%-3.60%0.190.140.540.350.250.280.200.170.210.25
YoY Growth--40.63%-74.43%55.88%37.20%-9.31%40.22%14.50%-18.64%-15.54%-9.91%
Dividend Yield--4.79%3.86%12.87%6.14%4.40%6.85%3.16%2.92%5.72%9.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)971.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)895.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.33121.4672.87
Cash Retained (M)895.39895.39895.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.33-121.46-72.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)701.06773.93822.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,138.563,138.563,138.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-8.31%-7.31%-6.31%
Fair Value$1.46$1.73$1.98
Upside / Downside-65.05%-58.70%-52.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)971.64900.63834.81773.80717.25664.83684.78
Payout Ratio7.85%24.28%40.71%57.14%73.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.25218.66339.84442.15527.68598.35633.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-8.31%-7.31%-6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)201.70203.90206.10
Year 2 PV (M)289.18295.52301.93
Year 3 PV (M)347.05358.53370.26
Year 4 PV (M)382.07399.01416.51
Year 5 PV (M)399.64421.91445.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,983.2610,539.6611,120.59
Equity Value (M)11,602.8912,218.5212,860.55
Shares Outstanding (M)3,138.563,138.563,138.56
Fair Value$3.70$3.89$4.10
Upside / Downside-11.56%-6.87%-1.97%

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