Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Fuda Company Limited (600724.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.55 - $0.73$0.64
Multi-Stage$1.97 - $2.18$2.07
Blended Fair Value$1.36
Current Price$4.96
Upside-72.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.74%-9.92%0.160.170.260.220.270.100.160.190.240.44
YoY Growth---2.13%-35.35%15.31%-19.07%182.05%-37.52%-16.88%-21.88%-45.70%-4.10%
Dividend Yield--3.41%3.84%6.63%4.89%6.64%2.63%3.60%5.49%4.18%8.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)218.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)211.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.7727.3516.41
Cash Retained (M)7.037.037.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.77-27.35-16.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.74-20.33-9.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,445.191,445.191,445.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.01-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.01-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Fair Value$0.55$0.64$0.73
Upside / Downside-88.87%-87.01%-85.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)218.83193.18170.53150.54132.89117.31120.83
Payout Ratio96.79%95.43%94.07%92.72%91.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)211.81184.35160.43139.57121.41105.58111.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-12.72%-11.72%-10.72%
Year 1 PV (M)171.26173.22175.19
Year 2 PV (M)138.45141.64144.87
Year 3 PV (M)111.90115.79119.77
Year 4 PV (M)90.4294.6499.00
Year 5 PV (M)73.0577.3381.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,258.052,390.412,528.91
Equity Value (M)2,843.142,993.043,149.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,445.191,445.191,445.19
Fair Value$1.97$2.07$2.18
Upside / Downside-60.34%-58.25%-56.06%

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