Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co., Ltd. (600686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.23 - $4.58$3.89
Multi-Stage$3.11 - $3.37$3.24
Blended Fair Value$3.56
Current Price$11.33
Upside-68.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.60%8.71%0.280.290.290.000.020.020.080.240.140.04
YoY Growth---0.19%-1.93%5,713.35%-80.00%9.43%-73.00%-64.56%76.36%220.02%-65.73%
Dividend Yield--2.04%3.79%4.82%0.09%0.39%0.37%0.85%1.82%0.92%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.7341.0824.65
Cash Retained (M)160.90160.90160.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.73-41.08-24.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.17119.82136.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.05717.05717.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$3.23$3.89$4.58
Upside / Downside-71.50%-65.63%-59.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.64347.16366.72387.39409.21432.27445.24
Payout Ratio51.04%58.83%66.62%74.42%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.74204.24244.33288.28336.41389.04411.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)173.64175.29176.95
Year 2 PV (M)176.58179.97183.40
Year 3 PV (M)177.12182.25187.48
Year 4 PV (M)175.72182.53189.54
Year 5 PV (M)172.76181.17189.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,353.201,419.111,487.57
Equity Value (M)2,229.022,320.342,414.85
Shares Outstanding (M)717.05717.05717.05
Fair Value$3.11$3.24$3.37
Upside / Downside-72.56%-71.44%-70.28%

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