Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou TianMuShan Pharmaceutical Enterprise Co.,Ltd (600671.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.11 - $7.78$5.60
Multi-Stage$8.37 - $9.21$8.78
Blended Fair Value$7.19
Current Price$18.26
Upside-60.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.14%2.31%0.070.050.040.060.060.050.080.070.060.06
YoY Growth--28.79%39.48%-28.73%-4.29%15.22%-34.26%5.43%25.05%4.52%-1.72%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.60%0.46%0.58%0.68%0.46%0.27%0.38%0.18%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.634.142.49
Cash Retained (M)25.2825.2825.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.63-4.14-2.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.6521.1422.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.83121.83121.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate0.31%1.31%2.31%
Fair Value$4.11$5.60$7.78
Upside / Downside-77.48%-69.35%-57.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.1533.5834.0334.4734.9235.3836.44
Payout Ratio23.74%36.99%50.24%63.49%76.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.8712.4217.1021.8926.8031.8433.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate0.31%1.31%2.31%
Year 1 PV (M)11.6511.7611.88
Year 2 PV (M)15.0215.3215.63
Year 3 PV (M)18.0318.5819.13
Year 4 PV (M)20.7021.5422.40
Year 5 PV (M)23.0524.2225.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)930.92978.251,027.50
Equity Value (M)1,019.371,069.681,121.98
Shares Outstanding (M)121.83121.83121.83
Fair Value$8.37$8.78$9.21
Upside / Downside-54.18%-51.91%-49.56%

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