Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Jin Jiang Online Network Service Co., Ltd. (600650.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.90 - $1.20$1.05
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.74$1.66
Blended Fair Value$1.35
Current Price$16.25
Upside-91.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.43%-10.05%0.090.290.070.130.250.250.250.250.280.26
YoY Growth---68.71%292.53%-44.83%-46.55%-0.27%-0.57%0.56%-9.11%7.51%-1.77%
Dividend Yield--0.65%3.58%0.71%1.33%2.30%2.92%2.04%1.87%1.27%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.8215.519.31
Cash Retained (M)121.94121.94121.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.82-15.51-9.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.11106.42112.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)551.61551.61551.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-8.38%-7.38%-6.38%
Fair Value$0.90$1.05$1.20
Upside / Downside-94.45%-93.51%-92.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124.11114.95106.4798.6191.3384.5987.13
Payout Ratio1.75%19.40%37.05%54.70%72.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.1822.3039.4553.9466.0876.1380.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-8.38%-7.38%-6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)20.0720.2920.51
Year 2 PV (M)31.9532.6533.36
Year 3 PV (M)39.3240.6241.95
Year 4 PV (M)43.3545.2847.26
Year 5 PV (M)44.9547.4650.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)688.30726.69766.78
Equity Value (M)867.95913.00959.95
Shares Outstanding (M)551.61551.61551.61
Fair Value$1.57$1.66$1.74
Upside / Downside-90.32%-89.81%-89.29%

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