Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenyang Jinbei Automotive Company Limited (600609.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.10 - $1.51$1.30
Multi-Stage$2.77 - $3.06$2.91
Blended Fair Value$2.11
Current Price$4.86
Upside-56.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-33.64%-24.36%0.010.030.040.050.120.110.050.240.200.16
YoY Growth---54.74%-25.67%-12.24%-59.95%8.82%111.33%-78.19%21.15%25.87%-32.21%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.66%0.98%0.96%2.62%2.76%1.24%4.55%2.43%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.1133.8220.29
Cash Retained (M)158.91158.91158.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.11-33.82-20.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.80125.09138.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,303.521,303.521,303.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-6.86%-5.86%-4.86%
Fair Value$1.10$1.30$1.51
Upside / Downside-77.44%-73.16%-68.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.55254.71239.79225.75212.53200.08206.09
Payout Ratio41.26%51.01%60.76%70.51%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.64129.93145.69159.16170.56180.07190.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate-6.86%-5.86%-4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)119.86121.14122.43
Year 2 PV (M)123.98126.66129.36
Year 3 PV (M)124.95129.02133.17
Year 4 PV (M)123.52128.91134.47
Year 5 PV (M)120.30126.90133.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,996.013,160.323,331.77
Equity Value (M)3,608.613,792.943,984.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,303.521,303.521,303.52
Fair Value$2.77$2.91$3.06
Upside / Downside-43.04%-40.13%-37.10%

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