Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FuJian YanJing HuiQuan Brewery Co.,Ltd (600573.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.50 - $14.20$9.32
Multi-Stage$4.59 - $5.02$4.80
Blended Fair Value$7.06
Current Price$11.40
Upside-38.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.00%10.16%0.070.050.040.030.030.030.030.010.030.04
YoY Growth--28.21%35.00%8.57%16.67%0.00%0.00%252.94%-71.67%-25.00%60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.54%0.28%0.34%0.33%0.47%0.33%0.11%0.22%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7410.466.28
Cash Retained (M)82.2282.2282.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.74-10.46-6.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.4871.7575.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.67250.67250.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.50$9.32$14.20
Upside / Downside-43.00%-18.22%24.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.7189.1694.95101.12107.70114.70118.14
Payout Ratio1.79%19.43%37.07%54.71%72.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.5017.3235.2055.3377.93103.23109.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.6215.7715.92
Year 2 PV (M)28.6329.1829.73
Year 3 PV (M)40.5941.7542.94
Year 4 PV (M)51.5653.5455.58
Year 5 PV (M)61.5964.5767.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)953.57999.621,047.44
Equity Value (M)1,151.561,204.431,259.27
Shares Outstanding (M)250.67250.67250.67
Fair Value$4.59$4.80$5.02
Upside / Downside-59.70%-57.85%-55.93%

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