Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hundsun Technologies Inc. (600570.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.78 - $31.74$19.14
Multi-Stage$8.91 - $9.74$9.32
Blended Fair Value$14.23
Current Price$34.52
Upside-58.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.88%10.28%0.140.140.080.060.230.110.100.030.090.06
YoY Growth--6.57%68.89%40.03%-75.48%115.31%10.34%190.00%-61.54%44.44%12.50%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.58%0.15%0.17%0.50%0.29%0.31%0.17%0.64%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,052.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)247.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)805.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.58131.6178.97
Cash Retained (M)805.57805.57805.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.58-131.61-78.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)594.99673.96726.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.821,827.821,827.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.78$19.14$31.74
Upside / Downside-62.98%-44.55%-8.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,052.901,121.331,194.221,271.841,354.511,442.561,485.83
Payout Ratio23.49%36.79%50.09%63.40%76.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)247.33412.56598.23806.301,038.891,298.301,374.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)373.90377.44380.99
Year 2 PV (M)491.36500.72510.17
Year 3 PV (M)600.19617.42634.98
Year 4 PV (M)700.86727.81755.53
Year 5 PV (M)793.78832.12871.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,328.9113,972.7014,641.13
Equity Value (M)16,289.0017,028.2217,794.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,827.821,827.821,827.82
Fair Value$8.91$9.32$9.74
Upside / Downside-74.18%-73.01%-71.80%

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