Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Triumph Science & Technology Co.,Ltd (600552.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.80 - $5.49$3.86
Multi-Stage$2.31 - $2.51$2.41
Blended Fair Value$3.13
Current Price$12.99
Upside-75.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.89%15.05%0.150.150.310.210.200.110.090.120.040.03
YoY Growth--1.05%-50.73%44.90%9.38%76.84%27.38%-26.95%166.25%28.07%-8.21%
Dividend Yield--1.31%1.17%2.66%2.09%2.37%2.17%1.52%1.72%0.55%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)157.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.4019.6211.77
Cash Retained (M)23.0623.0623.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.40-19.62-11.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.343.4311.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)945.47945.47945.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.150.15
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.80$3.86$5.49
Upside / Downside-78.45%-70.27%-57.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)157.00167.20178.07189.65201.97215.10221.56
Payout Ratio85.31%86.25%87.19%88.13%89.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.94144.22155.26167.13179.88193.59204.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)129.28130.50131.73
Year 2 PV (M)124.76127.14129.54
Year 3 PV (M)120.39123.85127.37
Year 4 PV (M)116.16120.62125.22
Year 5 PV (M)112.06117.47123.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,580.301,656.631,735.88
Equity Value (M)2,182.952,276.212,372.83
Shares Outstanding (M)945.47945.47945.47
Fair Value$2.31$2.41$2.51
Upside / Downside-82.23%-81.47%-80.68%

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