Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fiberhome Telecommunication Technologies Co., Ltd. (600498.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.35 - $13.91$10.80
Multi-Stage$11.34 - $12.42$11.87
Blended Fair Value$11.33
Current Price$27.45
Upside-58.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.42%11.09%0.400.110.080.060.340.340.320.300.300.21
YoY Growth--259.98%37.35%39.04%-82.81%0.12%4.85%6.55%-0.04%42.92%51.54%
Dividend Yield--1.78%0.61%0.41%0.39%1.85%1.03%1.00%1.06%1.23%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)821.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)426.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)395.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.38102.7361.64
Cash Retained (M)395.62395.62395.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.38-102.73-61.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)231.24292.88333.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.661,169.661,169.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Fair Value$8.35$10.80$13.91
Upside / Downside-69.59%-60.66%-49.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)821.88841.78862.16883.03904.41926.31954.10
Payout Ratio51.86%59.49%67.12%74.75%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)426.26500.78578.67660.03744.99833.68882.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate1.42%2.42%3.42%
Year 1 PV (M)458.09462.61467.13
Year 2 PV (M)484.21493.81503.50
Year 3 PV (M)505.21520.30535.69
Year 4 PV (M)521.63542.51564.01
Year 5 PV (M)533.97560.81588.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,762.7111,303.8711,866.58
Equity Value (M)13,265.8213,883.9114,525.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,169.661,169.661,169.66
Fair Value$11.34$11.87$12.42
Upside / Downside-58.68%-56.76%-54.76%

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