Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhongjin Gold Corp.,Ltd (600489.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.47 - $21.79$16.45
Multi-Stage$10.09 - $10.99$10.53
Blended Fair Value$13.49
Current Price$21.93
Upside-38.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.64%33.72%0.490.280.220.160.020.140.020.020.160.01
YoY Growth--73.85%25.28%39.84%767.73%-87.18%575.16%-14.29%-84.68%2,578.24%-77.27%
Dividend Yield--3.45%2.09%2.12%2.02%0.22%1.78%0.24%0.27%1.38%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,421.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,500.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,921.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)884.33552.71331.63
Cash Retained (M)2,921.382,921.382,921.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-884.33-552.71-331.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,037.052,368.682,589.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,872.154,872.154,872.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.790.84
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.47$16.45$21.79
Upside / Downside-43.13%-25.00%-0.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,421.674,709.085,015.175,341.165,688.336,058.076,239.82
Payout Ratio33.93%45.14%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,500.292,125.882,826.463,609.134,481.615,452.275,771.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.64%11.64%11.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,886.311,904.191,922.07
Year 2 PV (M)2,225.322,267.702,310.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,521.312,593.692,667.44
Year 4 PV (M)2,778.002,884.832,994.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,998.813,143.653,294.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,733.3638,507.5940,349.73
Equity Value (M)49,143.1051,301.6653,538.49
Shares Outstanding (M)4,872.154,872.154,872.15
Fair Value$10.09$10.53$10.99
Upside / Downside-54.01%-51.99%-49.89%

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